An analysis of Home Office data by the Financial Times showed that 22.7 per cent of Nigerian study visa applications were withdrawn in the first half of 2026, compared with 4.5 per cent during the same period in 2025.
The withdrawal rate for Pakistani applicants rose from three per cent to 40.9 per cent, while Bangladesh recorded an increase from 7.1 per cent to 23.5 per cent. Across all applicants, the rate climbed from 2.3 per cent to 10.5 per cent.
The development comes after student visa refusals doubled in the first six months of 2026. Under the stricter rules, universities risk losing their licences to recruit international students if more than five per cent of applicants they admit are refused visas.
Sir David Bell, vice-chancellor of the University of Sunderland, said the unexpected increase in refusals had forced some institutions to take preventive measures, including withdrawing from international markets facing tougher visa scrutiny.
Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International, said visa processing had become “markedly less predictable”, with some decisions allegedly based on “flawed, inconsistent and highly subjective reasoning”.
Vanessa Wilson, chief executive of University Alliance, warned that the situation could lead to institutional restructuring, job losses and the closure of courses and campuses.
Professor Steven McGuire of the University of East Anglia said his institution had begun withdrawing offers from applicants in certain countries after experiencing what he described as “very arbitrary and ill-informed refusals”.
He cited a case in which a visa interviewer allegedly failed to recognise that the university was located in Norwich, resulting in an applicant being refused a visa.
The rising refusal rates have raised concerns about the impact of stricter immigration enforcement on international students and UK universities that depend on overseas enrolment.
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